Office of Science and Technology

The NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) held a second National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop (NEMoW II) August 25-27, 2009. The workshop was held for the purpose of engaging the ecosystem modeling community within the NMFS and how that community can best help the NMFS to meet its goals and obligations.

NEMoW II had the following overarching theme: "Bridging the credibility gap", or more specifically, how can the NMFS ecosystem modeling community deal with uncertainty in ecosystem models? The specific objectives of this workshop were to:

National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop II (NEMoW II)
August 25-27 2009
Chesapeake Bay Foundation, Merrill Center, Annapolis, MD

August 25, 2009
August 26, 2009
August 27, 2009

		Topic
830	Welcome & Orientation		Host (Peyton Robertson)
840	Overview, Objectives & Goals	Workshop Purpose & Rationale	J. Link
845	The role of EM in NOAA NMFS	NMFS Context and Forthcoming EM Issues	K. Osgood
915	Keynote Speaker	Review of Major Types of Uncertainty in Modeling & How to Deal with Them	Randall Peterman
1015		Discussion on Types of EM Uncertainty	Plenary
1030	Coffee Break
1100	Keynote Speaker	Generic Levels of EM Uncertainty- Data Inputs, Parameters, Outputs & Considerations from other disciplines	Nick Bond
1145		Discussion on Types of EM Uncertainty	Plenary
1200	Lunch
1300	Break-out Groups	Discuss Model Uncertainty	Break-out Groups
1400		Report back to plenary	Plenary
		Discussion on Types of EM Uncertainty	Plenary
1530	Coffee Break
1600	Break-out Groups	Overriding Workshop Theme: "Bridging the Credibility Gap" -- Nat'l EM Standards of Use & Review	Break-out Groups
1700		Report back to plenary & Wrap up	Plenary
~1730	Adjourn

		Topic
A *BRIEF* summary of how each Center is addressing EM Uncertainty: maybe multiauthored, but 1 presenter for each theme, presented by theme
830	Keynote Speaker	How Has Strategic Advice Been Used in a Global LMR Context? A Global Perspective on How To Deal with EM Uncertainty	Andre Punt
930		What are the one to two top unknowns in each Center’s EM activities?	D. Kobayashi/C. Harvey
945		How is each Center addressing EM Uncertainty: e.g., Sensitivity Analysis, Multi-model inference, Risk Analysis, MSE, etc.?	J. Link/G. Watters
1000		What are the venues that each Center is using to present and review EM? Are they appropriate/sufficient?	K. Aydin/P. Levin
1015		Are SS and EM model outputs being compared/complementary in each Center? If so, how?	J. Field/S. Gaichas
1030	Coffee Break
1100		How is each Center engaging Stakeholders, particularly Councils, wrt Strategic Advice and Guidance from EM?	P. Levin/G. Watters
1115		If a Center is not doing EM and evaluating EM uncertainty, why not?	M. Schirripa/D. Kobayashi
1130		What is the availability of data that might be used in a Ecosystem model? And how accessible is this data?	K. Osgood/M. Schirripa
		Discussion on Common Approaches to Handle EM uncertainty	Plenary
1200	Lunch
1300	Break-out Groups	Discuss & demonstrate approaches and experiences in handling EM uncertainty	Break-out Groups
1400		Report back to plenary	Plenary
		Discussion on handling EM uncertainty	Plenary
1530	Coffee Break
1600	Break-out Groups	Discuss EM output relative to SS (Fish and PR) model output: wrt use, precision, variability, uncertainty, etc.	Break-out Groups
1700		Report back to plenary & Wrap up	Plenary
~1730	Adjourn

		Topic
	Model Classes	How to Utilize Strategic Model Output
830	Keynote Speaker	What Models Can produce Tactical BRPs, What Models Can Produce Strategic Outputs: Case Studies where Strategic Advice would have helped	Tom Miller
930		Discussion on the Best Venue/s for Providing Strategic Advice	Plenary
1030	Coffee Break
1100		Discussion on how to provide Strategic Advice to LMR Management Bodies	Plenary
1200	Lunch
1300	Break-out Groups	Discuss EM Review Criteria wrt Strategic Advice and Uncertainty	Break-out Groups
1400		Report back to plenary	Plenary
1430		Discussion of EM Review Criteria wrt Strategic Advice and Uncertainty	Plenary
1530	Coffee Break
1600		Discussion of Next Steps	Plenary, Steering Cmte
~1730	Adjourn

National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop (NEMoW)