Modeling California Salmon Fleet Dynamics

Abstract

This paper describes ongoing research into the dynamics of the California commercial salmon fishery. The fishery is limited-entry in that the salmon vessel permit must be renewed each year: if allowed to lapse, the permit cannot be reactivated. This element of irreversibility in the exit decision suggests that real options may be an appropriate modeling framework to describe and predict fleet dynamics in this fishery. Two real options models are developed and tested against each other and against a competing hypothesis of exit decisions based on a net present value criterion. The real options models have significantly more explanatory power than the present value model, and taken together suggest that fleet dynamics are more driven by average boat performance than by total fleet performance. The final section describes work in progress to develop more complete formulations of the model (Click here for paper).

Source: Tomberlin, D. 2002. “Modeling California Salmon Fleet Dynamics.” In: Proceedings of the First North American Fisheries Economics Forum, April 1-4, 2001, New Orleans, LA. Corvallis, OR: International Institute for Fisheries Economics and Trade.

For more information, please contact: David.Tomberlin@noaa.gov